Application: Multiscale Migration Prediction

Application: Multiscale Migration Prediction

Forced displacement has a huge impact on society today, with more than 70.8 million people currently forcibly displaced from their home worldwide. Forecasting the arrival of migrants is challenging as well as important, as it could help governments and NGOs save refugee lives and allocate humanitarian resources efficiently to provide support and protection.

Researchers are using the FLEE agent-based simulation code to model and predict the distribution of incoming refugees across destination camps for African countries. To automate the construction, execution and analyses of ensemble simulations of refugee movements, they are using FabFlee, which is a plugin for FabSim3.

FabFlee provides an environment for researchers and organisations to construct and modify refugee simulations, instantiate and execute multiple runs for different policy decisions, as well as to validate and visualise the obtained results against the existing data. It can also be used with EasyVVUQ to analyse the sensitivity of key assumption and parameters in our code.